The latest 2025 NDC Synthesis Report, released ahead of COP 30 in Belem, paints a mixed picture of global climate ambition.
And while nations are showing unprecedented commitment to cutting greenhouse gas emissions and embedding climate action into national policy, the pace of progress remains well short of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 deg C target.
The report, released by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), finds that collective emissions are bending downwards, but not fast enough to avert the escalating risks of a warming planet.
Drawing on 64 new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted between January 2024 and September 2025, covering roughly 30 per cent of global emissions, the report highlights both encouraging advances and persistent gaps in ambition, financing, and implementation.
SIGNS OF REAL PROGRESS
A decade after the Paris Agreement was adopted, the 2025 synthesis report signals tangible forward movement.
Nearly 9 in 10 countries have now adopted economy-wide emission targets, a major step up from previous rounds.
Collectively, these new commitments are projected to cut emissions by up to 17 per cent below 2019 levels by 2035, with emissions from the contributing group of nations expected to peak before 2030.
It’s the clearest indication yet that many economies are turning the corner towards decarbonisation.
The report also notes a decisive shift towards whole-of-society climate action.
Almost every country (95 per cent) has involved non-state actors in implementing their NDCs, from local governments and businesses to civil society and academia.
Youth engagement and gender inclusion have reached record levels: 88 per cent of NDCs now reference children and youth, while 89 per cent integrate gender equality.
The report describes this as a “structural shift” in how countries design and deliver climate action, embedding participation and inclusivity as core governance principles.
In the policy sphere, progress has been striking. Some 97 per cent of Parties now have national legal or policy frameworks that directly support climate implementation, including climate acts, carbon markets and renewable energy laws.
More than 40 per cent have legislated net-zero strategies, providing a long-term legal basis for action.
Adaptation has also gained renewed importance, and the report cites about 73 per cent of the new NDCs include detailed adaptation components, up sharply from previous cycles.
Countries are focusing on food security, water management, health, and disaster resilience, with 94 per cent referencing measures to tackle loss and damage.
Many are aligning their national adaptation strategies with the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience, reflecting growing coherence in global climate planning.
Technology and innovation have surged to the forefront. Almost every NDC (97 per cent) mentions technology priorities, with 75 per cent specifying detailed mitigation and adaptation measures.
Countries are investing in solar and wind energy, digital monitoring tools, and artificial intelligence (AI) for climate tracking.
The report notes that innovation is “increasingly domestic and inclusive”, with local governments and private enterprises leading the charge.
Education and awareness also feature prominently. The vast majority of nations (78 per cent) have introduced climate change education into their school systems, while 84 per cent are running public awareness campaigns.
Training programmes for green jobs and just transition measures are expanding, signalling a deeper social transformation accompanying the energy transition.
Perhaps most promising is the momentum around international cooperation. Nearly all Parties reaffirmed their commitment to climate multilateralism, recognising that shared action is indispensable to achieving global goals.
Three-quarters of countries included detailed financial plans within their NDCs, with estimated investment needs nearing $2 trillion.
Many are exploring new mechanisms such as green bonds, blended finance, and carbon trading to attract both public and private capital.
THE WORLD IS STILL FALLING SHORT
Despite these hopeful developments, the report delivers a sobering verdict: Global efforts remain far from sufficient to keep warming below 1.5 deg C.
The 64 new NDCs analysed represent only about 30 per cent of total global emissions, making it impossible to conclude that the world is collectively on track.
Even among the reporting countries, the ambition gap persists. While emissions are declining faster than before, the rate of reduction still falls short of the scale required by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for a 1.5 deg C pathway.
Many targets remain conditional, and are dependent on external finance, technology, or capacity-building support, raising questions about whether they will be fully achieved.
Finance, unsurprisingly, remains the greatest bottleneck. Developing nations continue to face structural barriers to accessing climate funds, from complex procedures to co-financing demands and high debt burdens.
While many have quantified their needs, few have secured the necessary flows. As the report bluntly notes, “persistent funding gaps” are preventing ambition from being turned into durable outcomes.
Capacity and data limitations also undermine progress. Numerous developing countries still lack robust systems to monitor emissions, measure adaptation outcomes, or enforce environmental regulations.
Weak institutional coordination and technical deficits continue to delay implementation, particularly in least-developed and small island states.
The report further warns that the private sector’s potential remains underutilised.
Although 75 per cent of countries reference private finance mobilisation, actual investment is low due to high risk perceptions and insufficient incentives.
Similarly, some of the most promising mitigation actions, such as afforestation and large-scale solar deployment, are still heavily conditional on international support.
Most troublingly, only 41 per cent of countries explicitly link their NDCs to the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goals.
The UNFCCC secretariat cautions that, while the world has moved from pledges to policies, implementation is still lagging behind what science demands. — OGN / Trade Arabia News Service
Send us your company’s news today and they could be featured on ABC’s Community News tommorow.
