Oil production across the Gulf, sharply curtailed by the Iran conflict, is expected to stage a strong recovery within months once the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, according to Goldman Sachs, offering a measure of optimism for regional energy markets.
In a research note cited on Thursday, the bank said that while the disruption has been severe—with an estimated 14.5 million barrels per day, or about 57% of pre-conflict supply, effectively offline in April—much of the impact stems from precautionary shutdowns and logistical constraints rather than lasting damage to oil infrastructure.
This distinction underpins a relatively positive outlook for the Gulf’s major producers, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which retain significant spare capacity and the ability to ramp up output once export routes stabilise.
Goldman Sachs said a “safe and sustained” reopening of Hormuz—through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows—could enable most of the region’s supply to return within a few months, assuming no renewed attacks on energy infrastructure.
However, the bank cautioned that the pace of recovery will depend on logistics and operational factors, including reduced tanker availability and the technical challenges of restarting wells after prolonged shutdowns. Empty tanker capacity in the region has fallen sharply, potentially slowing the return of exports even after the waterway reopens.
Despite these constraints, broader forecasts suggest a steady rebound, with a substantial portion of lost output likely to be restored within three to six months, reinforcing confidence in the Gulf’s resilience and its central role in stabilising global energy markets.
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