Air cargo spot rates are continuing to rise sharply amid the highly volatile, unstable, and fast-changing situation in the Middle East, following the military attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes on targets in the region.
The latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data highlight that there has been some recovery in air cargo markets since the outbreak of the war, although the situation for carriers, airports, and other stakeholders in the region remains extremely challenging and subject to sudden and rapid change.
As some limited capacity returned last week (+35%, WoW), tonnages from Gulf area countries surged back with a +74% WoW increase after falling -65% the previous week, although they remain around -50% below their pre-war levels (week of February 16 to 22).
Tonnages from South Asia origins – normally heavily dependent on capacity from Gulf carriers – also partially rebounded with a +24% WoW rise, although they are still -20% below their pre-war levels. Average spot rates from South Asia also recorded a WoW jump of +24% to $3.54 per kilo, increasing more than +60% in two weeks.
Examining specific markets from that region, Middle East & South Asia to Europe volumes rebounded by +27%, WoW, but they remain -20% below their pre-war levels and -9% below their levels in the same period last year, stated the report.
Tonnages from Dubai recovered strongly, up +67%, WoW, after dropping -39% the previous week, although they are still -30% below their pre-war reference levels.
Average spot rates from Gulf countries also rose, WoW, by a further +22% to $3.77 per kilo, taking them around +56% higher than their pre-war level.
According to the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data, average global full-market air cargo rates rose by a significant +10%, week on week (WoW), in week 11 (March 9 to 15) to $2.67 per kilo (including surcharges) after surging +8% the previous week, as carriers, freight forwarders, and cargo owners responded to disrupted markets, constrained air cargo capacity, alternative flight routings, demand backlogs, uncertainty, and higher jet fuel prices.
Worldwide volumes recorded a +4% WoW increase, due to a further post-Lunar New Year recovery (Asia Pacific +5%, WoW) and partially returning volumes from Middle East & South Asia origins (+30%, WoW), although global tonnages were -7% down, year on year (YoY), and the situation in the Middle East remains highly fluid.
Average worldwide spot rates rose by +12%, WoW, to $3.19 per kilo, taking them +22% higher than in the equivalent week last year, said the report from WorldACD Market Data.
Understandably, the biggest spikes in spot rates occurred from Middle East & South Asia origins, where spot rates spiked by a further +22%, WoW, to $4.37 per kilo, up +58% compared with last year, it stated.
Although air cargo capacity and traffic recovered significantly compared with the previous week, thanks to the partial reopening of some airports and airspace in the region and alternative routings avoiding restricted areas, air cargo capacity and services to and from the region remain highly constrained, particularly within Gulf countries, and subject to sudden disruptions, delays and backlogs.-TradeArabia News Service
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